Thanks for the help, Zawahiri

Ayman al-Zawahiri’s recent portrayal of Barack Obama as a ‘house Negro’ and Jewish pawn highlights Al-Qaeda’s current state of anxiety. The election of America’s first multi-ethnic and internationalist president may deal a heavier blow to the group than have the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Al-Qaeda, despite the politically potent terrorism tag, exists and operates as an insurgency with a global reach and agenda. Insurgent groups rely heavily on propaganda-driven recruitment to sustain their existence and secure their safe havens. If Al-Qaeda loses this battle for hearts and minds, it will become less influential and effective in the coming years. This is all fairly straightforward to any student of international relations.

The Long Wait is (Almost) Over

This country and the world has not suffered from a lack of discussion of the 2008 presidential election. In fact, news commentators report the lamentations of many Americans who feel this election has gone on long enough. Is a 1.5-2-year referendum on the leadership of the most powerful nation in the world too long? I would argue that the stakes are so high, and the opportunities so great, that the length of this election is an organic product of America’s powerful position in the world. The opposition Democratic party saw an opportunity open in 2006 with seemingly poor performance in Iraq and Afghanistan;  whether or not this was true, it was a powerful message that hampered the Republican party’s chances to pass the torch to a chosen successor.

The realities of power politics are front and center in this election. Whether consciously or unconsciously, Americans are affected by a perceived reduction of American power abroad. An Economist.com poll shows global popular opinion and can be construed as a backlash from Bush’s foreign policy. Senator Obama’s message of domestic change is thought to translate into foreign policy change, or, as on some bi-lateral issues, a reversal of past policies.

If the American electorate is a rational actor, changing its collective mind of over 200 million eligible voters with a complicated arguement against the policies of the past 8 years requires time but they are fully engaged. Elections cycles measured in years do not happen unless people want them to happen.